Now that we are half way through the book, I think it would be a good time to stop and make some predictions about what we think will happen in the second half. Where do we find ourselves today? (A list would be in order.)
What do you expect to happen in the next chapter? How will the book finish?
Of course wild guesses are fun, but predictions using evidence we have acquired so far are probably more likely to occur.
(I saw a list of predictions for ‘the next 100 years’ that was published in Ladies Home Journal in 1900. You might find it interesting. I wonder what evidence they used to develop their predictions. Click here to see the article.)
Second Half reading begins Monday.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Predictions?
Posted by Mr. Z at 6:50 AM
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Ben and I decided to see what we thought of then predictions from the 1900 article in Ladies Home Journal.
Independently we read each predication and rated it on a scale of 0 to 2. (Ben chose the scale.)
0 = not true at all
1 = partially true
2 = totally true
Then we read each item together and compared our rating. I felt we needed a scale with a greater range. For example, if the scale had been 1 to 5, I would have given many 2’s and 4’s. In the end though they probably balanced. For the most part our ratings were very similar.
After comparing our responses, we each calculated a total score. I gave 27 out of 56 possible points. Ben gave 25. Using Excel we calculated this as 48% and 45% respectively.
Both Ben and I noticed that uses of electricity showed up in many of the predictions. 1900 must have been at the very beginning of when electricity was becoming widely available.
Some predictions seemed odd as phrased, but when given a modern equivilent they made more sense. For example, Ben gave a prediction that included “The living body will to all medical purposes be transparent” a rating of 0. I almost gave this item a 2. CAT scans and other forms of medical diagnosis do give doctors a very clear view inside our bodies.
I wonder how predictions from 2000 will read 100 years from now.
We made a list of things that happened so far and then we organized them into groups.
Things we noticed.
- moose has met many new people
- Moose already broke a rule.
- Moose hasn’t met any inmates.
- He loves to play baseball.
- Theresa, who was thought to be a bossy kid, turned out to be a very nice girl.
- Mooses dad works all the time.
Important things about characters
- Moose is very unhappy about moving.
- Moose always feels like he has to do what he is supposed to do.
- Piper controls almost everybody, maybe even her father.
- Natalie became a part of the group of friends on the island.
Plot Elements
- they moved to alkatraz for his sisters school, but she got kicked out after the first day.
- Natalie has some really big problems.
- mooses mother has tried many things to help Natalie, and none of them seem to have worked.
- Mooses school friend, scout, is angry at him for canceling a baseball game.
- Moose has gotten into a big problem with the laundry caper, even though he wasn’t a part of it.
- He got baseball taken away from him as a punishment.
Predictions for the second half of the text:
1. Moose will break more rules.
I expect this because he has discovered that he can do so without great consequence like when he gave Nat back her button jar and fed her all the lemon cake that she could eat. Moose will also break more rules because he has nothing to lose. He's getting in trouble when he doesn't break them. so why not break them?
2. Natalie will become even more a member of the group.
This I expect because Piper has discovered that she has special talents that Piper finds convenient and so will use Nat again to make her life easier.
3. Piper will continue to scheme and get away with things while the others pay the price. I worry about Moose's father's job here.
Predictions I made:
- Moose will meet an inmate.
- He will go againsed the club.
- Moose will meet a very young child.
- Natalie will get moose into a lot of trouble.
- Moose will eventually go back to his old house.
- Piper will tell about him breaking rule 4.
- Piper will get in trouble with her dad.
- Moose will break rules 1 and 3 without knowing.
- Natalies case will get worse.
- Moose will be sent to his grandmothers for a chapter.
Please respond on my predictions.
I believe that Scout’s interest in a ‘Convict Baseball’ and Moose’s interest in recapturing Scout’s friendship could lead to more problems for Moose.
I am intrigued by one of the ‘Rules’ – everyone must pass through the ‘Snitch Box’. I have a feeling that this rule will be broken but I cannot predict what will be snuck in or out.
Though I do not think Nat will get ‘better’, I have a feeling that she is going to do something that helps Moose or gets him out of trouble. It is possible that this will involve her ability to memorize indexes – though again I am not sure how.
My gut tells me that the Flanagan family will come to terms with living on the island, but things that threaten their ability to stay will have to be overcome.
Piper? Piper will be Piper and her ability to make boys act against their own best interests will be an important element of Part 2.
Ben,
"Moose will meet a very young child."
How do you think that will be significant and what is the basis for that prediction?
I was thinking that the child that moose would meet would try and follow what moose whas doing. During the duration of the chapters, the child will find out about pipers personality, and quit pipers “club”. This child may help moose with his problems.
Ben-
Couldn't Theresa be the young child who gets Moose out of trouble? I don't see the author adding more characters, maybe because I hate when they do that to conveniently solve a plot dilemma that has been created. I do like your prediction that Moose will see his grandmother. She could be a great source of comfort to him.
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